Third Wave

Future Scenarios of

Here are your three descriptions of a future for your topic. Use them to broaden your horizon, discover dead angles in your outlook, and learn about different perspectives. These questions will help you reflect on the scenarios:

  • What surprises you? What is new for you?
  • What have you heard before? Where?
  • Which future do you find most plausible? Why?
  • Which future would you prefer? What could you do to make it more likely?

Scenario 1
It's the year 2030 and Mikhail Khodorkovsky is seen walking the streets of London. A group of foreign journalists approach him and ask what he is doing there, but before Khodorkovsky has time to respond a man in a dark suit and a red tie appears out of nowhere, pulls Khodorkovsky to his feet and hustles him into a waiting car. This incident made headlines across Europe, and many questions were asked: Does Khodorkovsky have any relation to the Dutch Harbor massacre? Russian President Vladimir Putin denied that any government involvement was involved, and that this was 'an affair of state.' He made note that European journalists should know better than to believe what they read in the papers. The United Kingdom expressed its desire to continue designing nuclear weapons. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Deutsche Welle that "it sickens us to hear these words. Sickens us to the core." Future Scenario 2: It's the year 2030 and Mikhail Khodorkovsky is seen walking the streets of London

Scenario 2
Imagine a future where Khodorkovsky is still alive, back in Russia, but hardly a free man. After being released from jail early because of ill health in 2013, he was placed under house arrest at his mother's residence near Moscow. He is not allowed to use the phone or internet and has to be taken to the hospital by a personal guard. He sank into depression.

Scenario 3
In this future it's the year 2030 and Mikhail Khodorkovsky is no longer in England, but he is still breathing. Moreover, he has somehow ended up on a private jet full of businesspeople heading to the southern Russian city of Sochi, home to the 2014 Winter Olympics. A representative from the British Foreign Office tells reporters that 'this is a matter of state and we have every intention to bring him back to London.'

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Third Wave specialized in using foresight and futures thinking to orient yourself in a volatile and complex world. We create unique scenarios for your individual context and help you shape your own way through a time of massive uncertainty. Get in contact to learn more.

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